全球“实物黄金供不应求”将继续推高金价

译者 王为

文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明

Global “Gold Crunch” Will Send Prices Higher

ByDavid Forest

Let’s talk about gold. It’s one of the big stories right now.

今天聊聊黄金，这是当下最关注的话题之一。

And I know a lot of readers want to know more about its abilityto protect them in a crisis like the one that’s unfolding right now.

我知道有很多读者想知道，在当前的危急关头黄金是否能保障自己的利益不失。

So far in this crisis, the S&P 500 has seen a maximum“drawdown” (peak-to-trough fall) of 34%.

本次危机发生至今，标准普尔500指数的最大回撤幅度——即从危机爆发前的历史最高位至近期低点的跌幅已达34%。

And gold wasn’t spared in the panic, either. It saw a maximumdrawdown of 12%.

与此同时，黄金也未能在市场的恐慌中幸免，金价最多时下跌了12%。

下图为今年以来美股（蓝线）和金价（黄线）的走势对比

Now, I know which loss I’d prefer to take.

现在，我搞清楚了什么样的损失才是我所愿意承担的。

But there has been some disappointment about the gold price falling when stock markets crashed. And that’s understandable. Folks are worried their “disaster insurance” might not be working.

但还是有人对股市崩盘之时金价也在下跌一事抱有一丝失望，这种情绪是可以理解的，大家都在担心手中持有的黄金——这个历来被认为是“灾难时期的救命稻草”可能不再好使了。

But here’s the thing… temporary selloffs, like the one we justsaw in gold, are pretty normal. I’ll explain more below… and I’ll also tell youabout the catalysts that will send gold higher soon…

但事实是：黄金遭遇的只是暂时性的抛售，这很正常。下文将对此做一些解读，同时还会告诉各位金价很快就将再次走高的推动因素都有哪些。

“Gold Crunch”

“黄金供不应求”

If you look back to past stock market crashes, gold usually falls with everything else before it runs higher. It happened after the dot-com crash in 2000.

回顾以往的股市崩盘期间，金价通常在上涨之前会先随着其他金融资产一起下跌，在2000年美国互联网股市泡沫破裂后出现过这一幕。

It also happened after the financial crisis. Gold initially dropped by as much as 29% before it rallied 166% to its last bull market peakof $1,895 in September .

同样的现象在金融危机之后也出现过，危机爆发后金价先是下跌了29%之多，其后上涨了166%直到9月创下1,895美元/盎司的天价。

Why these initial drops for gold?

为啥这几次危机发生后金价的第一反应是下跌？

When these market crunches hit, overleveraged traders sell everything they can to satisfy margin calls. In other words, they need to come up with extra cash as collateral for shares they borrowed.

当金融市场遭遇危机，投资杠杆率过高的投资者会卖掉手中一切可以卖掉的东西来补缴保证金，也就是说，投资者急需现金来维持原先通过借钱加上去的股票仓位。

They basically sell everything that isn’t bolted to the floor.This includes gold and “paper” gold – stuff like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and futures contracts that give you exposure to the gold price without actually being gold.

他们基本上会把价格还没有跌倒白菜价的金融资产全卖掉，其中就包括实物黄金和“纸黄金”，“纸黄金”就是跟踪金价走势的交易所交易基金以及黄金期货合约之类的东西，投资者通过这些“纸黄金”可以从金价的涨跌中获利而不需要实际持有实物黄金。

In many cases, it’s not people selling physical gold. It’speople liquidating paper gold to raise cash.

在很多情况下，人们卖掉的并不是实物黄金，他们卖掉的是“纸黄金”以获取现金头寸。

However, physical precious metal supplyisincredibly tight right now.

但是，当前贵金属实物的供应出现了令人难以置信的紧张。

And this “gold crunch” is something I’ve been picking up from my global network of contacts in the gold industry.

这个“实物黄金供不应求”的信息是通过我在全球黄金业界的人脉关系打探到的。

For instance, I got a note from a bullion dealer I know inSingapore recently. He told me he had no gold – or silver – left to sell.Anything that is moving is selling at premiums of 20%, 30%… even 40%… above“spot” price (the quoted gold price).

最近，我从一个常驻新加坡的黄金现货交易员处得悉，他手中已经没有实物黄金或实物白银可以拿出来卖了，现在买卖贵金属现货必须在即期报价的基础上加20%，30%甚至是40%的溢价才行。

Bottom line: Demand is strong for physical precious metals. Andthat’s exactly what you would expect during a crisis like this.

Gold – along with silver, platinum, and palladium – is doingwhat it’s supposed to be doing. It’s just going to take some time to flush theselling in the paper market out of the system.

画个重点：果然不出所料，在当前这样的危机期间市场对实物贵金属的需求很大。黄金与白银、铂金、钯金一样正在发挥着本该发挥的作用，只是需要花上一些时间等纸黄金市场上的卖单被吃光。

We’re seeing some massive spikes in volatility in the gold price as a result of this “gold crunch.”

在“实物黄金供不应求”的影响下，金价出现了一些非常大的波动。

We’ve been seeing hundred-dollar swings. That’s going tocontinue.

金价在短期内的波幅达到了上百美元，这种剧烈的波动将继续下去。

We could also get another few dumps in the gold price if we haveanother stock market drop… which I believe is likely.

如果股票市场再来个大跌，金价也许会再来几次触底，我认为很有可能。

Gold Mines Are Closing Down

金矿正在陆续关闭

Stocks have been mainly reacting to the coronavirus panic.The next issue investors are going to have to grapple with isthe impact of the pandemic on the economy.

股市近期的恐慌反应主要来自新冠疫情的影响，下一步投资者要努力克服的将是新冠疫情给对全球经济带来的负面效应。

I’m talking about border closures, government orders to go intolockdown, businesses closing, folks losing their jobs. That’s probably going tobring more “unexpected” news… and some more moves lower for stocks.

我指的是关闭边境、政府发布禁足令、企业关张以及民众失去工作等情况，更多“无法预料”的消息会接踵而至，股市会遭遇更多的下跌。

Plus, another effect of the coronavirus pandemic is a lot ofmines are shutting down.

除此之外，新冠疫情还会带来另一个问题，即很多金矿将停止运营。

There’s been a lot of news, particularly the last few days,about governments ordering non-essential businesses to close.

有很多新闻报道，尤其是最近几天里有报道指出，政府正在下令停止非核心的商业活动。

That includes gold mines.

其中受影响的就包括金矿。

South Africa is a top-10 gold-producing nation. Its government has said it’s closing all of the nation’s gold mines. These shutdowns alone will reduceglobalgold supply by 4%.

南非是全球十大金矿生产国之一，南非政府已经表示正在关闭该国所有的金矿，此举将导致全球黄金产量减产4%。

There have also been mine closures in the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario. Peru and Argentina have also shuttered mines nationwide.

在加拿大的魁北克以安大略省也有金矿被关闭，秘鲁和阿根廷也在关闭其国内的金矿。

Add that to more limited closures in Russia, and we’re seeing a global fall in the gold supply of 14%.

此外，俄罗斯也关闭了一些矿山，全球黄金产量预计将减少14%。

Below is the map view of these closures.

下图显示的是全球金矿停产的情况。

The black numbers show each country’s percentage of total globalproduction. The red numbers show the percentage of national supply lost due tocoronavirus closures.

图中黑色数字代表各国黄金生产量在全球的占比，红色数字代表该国黄金生产量因新冠疫情的影响而减产的比率。

You don’t need me to tell you that this is good news for the price of gold bars and coins. Supply is disappearing just as demand ramps up.It’s only a matter of time before that’s reflected in the gold price.

毋庸置疑，这对于金块和金币的价格来讲是个好消息，在需求大幅增长的同时供应却在减少，用不了多久就会在金价的走势中看到供求关系变化带来的影响。

Here’s what you need to know… Gold could see more temporary falls if we get more big down days in stocks.

大家需要知道的是：如果股市再次大跌，金价可能还会出现一些暂时性的下跌。

If it does, stay the course. There is no need to panic.

如果是这样的话，请稳住阵脚，休要惊慌，少要害怕。

As we’ve seen already, these are temporary drops. Gold droppedto $1,460 an ounce on March 16. But it shot back up to nearly $1,640 an ouncein a matter of days.

正如我们所见到的，这些只是临时性下跌。金价在3月16日跌到1,460美元/盎司的低位，但没几天就反冲到了1,640美元左右。

And with the catalysts I’ve outlined above, gold’s next run isjust around the corner.

在我前面列出的这些因素推动下，金价下一轮的上攻即将展开。

Keep walking the path,

好戏在后头。

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